FAQ

What is this?

A statistics site for Hattrick. Every team gets a Strength from the match ratings it played with, not from its results. From that come the chances for every match, expected points and luck in the tables, and the odds of where each team finishes. It brings back the idea of HTEV, rebuilt from scratch.

Thank you, furr_

This site would not exist without HTEV, made by furr_ and run at htev.org until January 2017. HTEV was the first to rate Hattrick teams by how they played instead of by their results: every match measured against the same fixed reference teams, a rating that followed those matches, expected points and luck in every league, the odds of where each team would finish, and charts that checked whether the chances were right. A lot of managers looked at it every week, and many of us missed it when it closed.

Almost every idea here started on furr_'s site. The code is new and the numbers are not the same, but the idea is theirs. Thank you, furr_.

Why the name HTEVo?

HTEV + o. EV stands for expected value, what HTEV was built around: how many points a team's play was really worth. The "o" makes it evo, evolution: not a copy of HTEV and not a reboot, but the same idea grown up, with new data, a new rating and a lot of checking against real results.

What is Strength?

How strong a team is right now. Each match gives a performance: how the team's ratings would do against a fixed set of reference teams. Strength follows those performances: the newest match counts about 30%, older ones fade out slowly. A team with 15 in every rating plays around 2,800. Very weak teams can go below zero, that's fine.

Form is the performance in the team's last match. Perf, in the match lists, is the performance of that one match.

Which matches count?

League and cup matches. National teams, friendlies, qualifiers and the Masters are not used (yet). A walkover counts as a very bad match for the team that didn't show up. When a big favourite plays below its Strength, it was probably resting players: from a 90% chance such a match counts less and less, and from 99% not at all. A cup match below Strength counts a quarter. A strong performance always counts in full. When a team gets a new manager, its Strength moves faster for a while.

Where is Hattrick Femme International?

Its clubs only play each other, so their Strength can't be compared with other clubs. They are left out of the world rankings and records and have their own on the Femme International page.

What are xPts and Luck?

xPts is how many points a team's match ratings were worth over the season so far. Diff is points minus xPts. Luck says how unusual the team's points are for the ratings it played, in sigmas: 0.0 is fair, plus is lucky, minus is unlucky. About two seasons in three land between −1 and +1, one in 44 above +2 and one in 740 above +3. The odds next to it (or on hover) say the same as "1 in N": +3.7 is a season that comes once in 10,000.

Where do the match chances come from?

From the match engine. For a played match, the chances use the ratings both teams actually played with, so they say who deserved to win, not who was the favourite before. For the next round they come from each team's Strength. Finishing odds come from 10,000 simulated finishes of the season.

How good are the chances?

Every league match of season 95 (2,057,525 matches), sorted by the home team's chance and cut into blocks of about 8,230. For each block: the average chance (coloured) and what the home teams really got (grey), as home win + draw/2. When the two lines lie on each other, the chances are right.

Before the match, from both teams' Strength the week before

Across: matches, in thousands. Up: home win + draw/2.

From the ratings both teams played with

Across: matches, in thousands. Up: home win + draw/2.

How is the home advantage handled?

Hattrick gives the home team about 20% more midfield. Before rating a match we take that back off, and then move the home side's performance up by 41 and the away side's down by 41, because home teams still came out a little lower than away teams. The chances for a match put the home advantage back: two equal teams give the home side about 61%.

When is the data updated?

Usually around 30 minutes after the matches are played. Weeks run Monday to Sunday.

Is this the same as Hattrick's Power Rating?

No, though they are cousins. HTEVo follows HTEV, which rated teams this way years before Power Rating existed: rate each lineup against generic opponents, then keep a running Strength in which recent matches count most. Power Rating instead averages the last five matches equally. HTEVo also shows how sure it is (±), the full history, and odds for upcoming matches.

What do you store about me?

Without logging in, nothing personal: "My teams" and the light/dark choice are kept in cookies in your own browser. If you log in with Hattrick, we keep your user id, manager name, clubs, the teams you added and an encrypted CHPP key to read your club list once a day. Your password never reaches us, and "Delete my account" on the account page removes it all. Like any web server, ours keeps a log of requests (address, page, browser, referring page, time) for 30 days, to find errors and abuse and to count visitors. Nothing is shared with anyone, and there are no trackers or ads.

I found a bug or have an idea

Send a Hattrick mail to Phunky.